Oscar Nominations How Did I Do on Guessing?

Terrible thats how.
Kate Winslets lead in Reader
Snub for The Dark Knight for picture and director
Angelina Jolie and Melissa leo in Best Actress instead of Sally Hawkins and Kristin Scott Thomas...

Lets see.
Best Picture

BEST PICTURE
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Frost/Nixon
-The Reader
-Slumdog Millionaire
-Milk

4/5
The Dark Knight/Wall - E for The Reader

BEST ACTOR
-Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
-Sean Penn, Milk
-Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
-Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

5/5
Woot! No surprises for me! Really glad to see Jenkins and Pitt here

BEST ACTRESS
-Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
-Angelina Jolie, Changeling
-Meryl Streep, Doubt
-Kate Winslet, The Reader
-Melissa Leo, Frozen River

2.5(wrong role for winslet)/5
Hawkins and Scott - Thomas for Leo and Jolie also predicted Winslet being nominated here for the Reader instead of Revolutionary Road.

BEST ACTOR - SUPPORTING
-Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
-Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
-Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
-Josh Brolin, Milk
-Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

5/5
Correctly predicted Michael Shannon while everyone else thought he was merely a dark horse.
A pleasant surprise.

BEST ACTRESS - SUPPORTING
-Amy Adams, Doubt
-Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
-Viola Davis, Doubt
-Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
-Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

4/5
Predicted Kate Winslet for Reader instead ofMarissa Tomei The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
-Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
-Stephen Daldry, The Reader
-David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
-Gus Van Sant, Milk

4/5
Predicted Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight for Stephen Daldry The Reader

Will look over the the rest of the nominees tomorrow I think The widespread support for The Reader is good for Kate Winslet and 13 total noms for Benjamin Button is good for it too... we will see!

Oscar Predictions Semi - Final Other Categories

Best Director
1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
He's a helmer of the most critically acclaimed and the oscar front runner for best pic. Most often the two go hand in hand
The Bad
Going up against other more heavy weight and overdue directors hurts and also there seems to be a bit of Slumdog backlash just like there was Juno and No Country for old men backlash last year.

2. Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
The Good
- He directed a very visually appealing film and created some great and very ambitous shots. Will the Dark Knight prevail?
The Bad
- Its a superhero movie.... Action flicks and blockbusters don't usually get into this mix although they are sometimes most deserving.

3. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- A very ambitous technical film. Will he finally get a shot at oscar after so many snubs? Button is pretty hard to ignore at this point.
The Bad
- Other tougher competition, he's been snubbed before will he again this time?

4. Gus Van Sant - Milk
The Good
- He's created some great films, and some say robbed for good will hunting. If milk gets the nod for best pic he's pretty much in
The Bad
- Some say his direction is odd and some conservative members may not like Milk.... (the film i mean :P)

5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- almost secure for a best pic nod will her mirror with a direction nod too?
The Bad
- Its really a performance showcase for Frank Langella and Michael Sheen will they notice the direction?

Other Possibilities...
Woody Allen - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Stephen Daldry - The Reader (this will have to be nommed for best pic for this to happen)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Andrew Stanton - Wall - e
Is it time for an animated film to win best original screenplay?

2. Woody Allen - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wonderfully witty and funny some say his best in years. Will they reward him accordingly?

3. Jenny Lumet - Rachel Getting Married
Definatley one of the most buzzworthy... Alot of people were talking about her script.

4. Dustin Lance Black - Milk
A very week but crowded race Milk might have to sweep.

5. Thomas Macarthy - The Visitor
He will get in especially if Richard Jenkins does.

Other Possibilites...
Synedoche, New York
Burn After Reading
Happy Go Lucky
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Slumdogs on fire and he's won tons of precursors.... but will someone upet?

2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
A huge threat especially if they love Button.

3. David Hare - The Reader
The Reader is a puzzle.... For sure Kates getting in but other categories... Im not sure yet...

4. John Patric Shanley - Doubt
Adapted from his own play - he is a sure fire contender

5. TIE Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon, Justin Hythe - Revolutionary Road
Which is getting in? Will both get in and bumb Hare or Shanley? hm.....

Art Direction
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
An artistically and technically ambitous film sure to get at least one or two tech awards.

2. Revolutionary Road
Great shots by champ Roger Deakins (hes a perenial fave in this category)

3. The Dark Knight
If not picture or director at least some tech awards AT LEAST!

4. Changeling AND/OR The Duchess
They usually throw in a period piece...

5. Slumdog Millionaire
Gotta love Slumdog! The slum scenes are especially surprisingly colorful and beautiful!

Cinematography
1. Slumdog Millionaire
for the same reasons as above

2. The Dark Knight

3. Australia
Another technically beautiful film sure to get some tech category nods

4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button/

5. Revolutionary Road

Costume Design
1. The Duchess
Again with the period pieces this year

2. Revolutionary Road
Great 50's outfits

3. Changeling
Another period piece

4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
And another....

5. Australia
And another!

Film Editing
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

2. Slumdog Millionaire

3. The Dark Knight

4. Frost/Nixon

5. Milk

Makeup
1. The Reader
Aging always a fave for makeup category last years champ La Vie En Rose.....

2. Helboy II The Golden Army
Awesome hellboy makeup of course among many other character standouts.

3.The Curious Case Case of Benjamin Button
Again aging but alot with cgi effects too...

Also Possible
The Dark Knight or Tropic Thunder for obvious Reasons (Robert Downey Jr. And the Joker!)

Original Score
1. Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahman
He did win the globe!

2. James Newton Howard and Hanz Zimmer - The Dark Knight
Tailing close behind...

3. Danny Elfman - Milk

4. Thomas Newman - Wall - e

5. Alexandre Desplat - Benjamin Button

Original Song
1. The Wrestler From The Wrestler
Bruce Springsteen! Hello!

2. Down To Earth From Wall - e

3. I Thought I Lost You From Bolt

4. Gran Torino From Gran Torino
Clints singing is funny but good writing...

5. Jaiho - Slumdog Millionaire
Interesting ethnic song!

Sound Mixing Just taking guesses here don't know much about the next 2 categories..
1. Wall - E
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Editing
1. The Dark Knight
2. Wall - e
3. Iron Man
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. Quantum of Solace

Visual Effects
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Iron Man
3. The Dark Knight
Also Possibly...
The Mummy, Hellboy OR Journey to the center of the earth.. I can't decide

Foreign Language Film
1. Waltz With Bashir
2. The Class
3. Revanche
4. The Baadar Meinhoff Complex
5. Everlasting Moments

Documentary Film
1. Man On Wire
2. IOUSA
3. Standard Operating Procedure
4. Trouble The Water
5. Made In America

Animated Feature
1. Wall - E
2. Kung Fu Panda
3. Bolt

Documentary Short
1. Room 306
2. Downstream
3. Viva La Causa
4. Smile Pink!
5. David McCollugh: Painting With Words

Animated Short
NO FREAKING CLUE? The one at the beginning of Wall - e? You know the pixar one? will post as I find out more same with Live action short... No idea...

Thanks for reading hope you enjoy my predics!

Oscar Predictions - Semi Final

Here are my semi final predictions. I will make my final predics after SAG award winners are announced!

Best Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
- Has won the hearts of critics and voters has won all the precursors
The Bad
- Everyones been talking about it people may be getting annoyed. No real acting recognition could hurt it. The acting branch is the largest.
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Good
- Just the kind of film oscar loves to reward star cast, great director and wonderful tech work.
The Bad
No wins from the precursors.
3. Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Great performances and a great director (Ron Howard)
The Bad
Hasn't gotten all that much recognition as a film as a whole
4. Milk
The Good
- Very political film with subject matter relating to today. Lots of great performances.
The Bad
- Gay subject matter may turn off some more conservative older members of the academy. Look at Broke Back Mountain.
5. The Dark Knight OR Wall - e
The Good
- Critically acclaimed films and seen by most if not all academy members. Heath Ledgers performance and Christopher Nolans direction and great tech from both films
The Bad
Ruthless campaigning from TDK may get annoying. Wall - e is an animated film.... Voters may feel rewarding it just for animated film will be enough recognition.

Dark Horses may surprise us come nomination morning.....

The Wrestler - very performance driven
Revolutionary Road - I could still picture this getting in...
Doubt - Great ensemble and script but what about the film as a whole?
Gran Torino - mixed reviews... but it is Clint Eastwood!

Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- Directed by her acclaimed husband Sam Mendes, Long overdue and she has proven she has tremendous talent, Reuniting with Titanic co-stars and She has won lots of precursors
The Bad
- Vote split with the Reader, Other threats like Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway could upset.

2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
The Good
- All the precursors Kate hasn't won Anne has (with few exceptions) Critic support behind her I almost have a feeling she could upset.
The Bad
- Did all voters see it?

3. Meryl Streep
The Good
- She's Meryl Streep! And shes in a great roll! duh!
The Bad
- I've heard some people say she over did it a bit. (I agree in some scenes she did) Voters may want to spread the wealth to deserving and overdue actresses who haven't won yet. Also some people may prefer Sherri Jones (sp?) performance on broadway.

4. Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
The Good
- Shes won a slew of big critics awards and she has the globe. Plus Mike Leigh has a good track record for his actresses
The Bad
- Its a very cheery comedy voters may not take her seriously

5. Kristin Scott Thomas - Ive Loved You So Long
The Good
- critics loved it
The Bad
- Some precursors didn't although the globes did which helps. And its a french performance (which didn't stop Marion Cotilard last year but still there is a language barrier)

Dark Horses...
Angelina Jolie - Changeling - Still don't see her getting in...
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - only if button is a total sweep.

Best Actor
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
The Good
- Critics and precursors adored this performance
The Bad
- Some say his past reputation still holds weight.

2. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Voters love to reward overdue veterans
The Bad
- Where are the precursor awards to show for it?

3. Sean Penn - Milk
The Good
- Lots of critic awards and post prop 8 guilt from california? Hello!
The Bad
- He's already won once and very recently.

4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- working with a great director, precursor nom attentions and aging roles (even in reverse?) usually bode well for alot of actors.
The Bad
- some voters may account some of his performance relying on CGI affects which is kinda true...

5. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
The Good
- SAG noticed maybe oscar will too?
The Bad
- such an early release date, it is a very subtle performance - oscar doesn't usually do subtle.

Dark Horses
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road - Only if they go ape sh** for rev road. He has gotten nominated in the past. It's still possible...
Clint Eastwod - Gran Torino - Some say he's getting a late surge but mixed reviews are stopping him.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet - The Reader (just putting her 1 in both categories I feel like this is finally her year to win one!)
The Good
- As said about Pitt aging roles are great for actors/actresses. Precursor attention helps
The Bad
- Category Fraud! Some voters may just put her in lead

2. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Good
- Shes proven herself a good actress, lots of precursor attention, Woody's gals always fare well come oscar time.
The Bad
- The only big threat is Winslet.... We'll see she's #2 for now....

3. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (very vulnerable Marissa Tomei for The Wrestler might take her spot)
The Good
- The films been getting raves. If oscar loves button as much as she'll get in.
The Bad
- Not much precursor attention

4. Viola Davis - Doubt
The Good
- precursor attention
The Bad
- short role, will she stand out amongst the rest of the cast?

5. Amy Adams - Doubt
The Good
- If oscar loved doubt she'll be in precursor noms help. Nun roles do well generally at oscars.
The Bad
- such a week category anyone can steal anyones spot and hers is especially vulnerable

Dark Horses
Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler - Becoming more and more likely but did oscar voters only notice Rourke? Thats what I think happened although she got the globe nod.
Rachel Getting Married Ladies - Rosemarie Dewitt and Debra Winger - A veteran overdue actress and another making quite a name for herself and even got a couple precursor awards will they love Rachel?
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road - She does have industry favor but did voters love rev road?

Best Supporting Actor
1. Heath Ledger
The Good
- everything
The Bad
- super hero flick.... Agressive campaigning might get annoying

2. Josh Brolin - Milk
The Good
- Hes done great performances in the last 2 years that have been snubbed. Since he's not getting in for W. will voters finally reward him?
The Bad
- he's the villain but then again so is Ledger and so was Anthony Hopkins... Also lack of precursor attention.

3. Phillip SeymourHoffman - Doubt
The Good
- Voter love them some PSH! its just a great role for him he plays creepy but kind hearted really well.
The Bad
- nothing really although it is a weak race anyone is vulberable at this point.

4. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- a very baity role mentally handicapped
The Bad
- very small role and lack of attention from anywhere....

5. Robery Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
The Good
- Getting recognized from the big precursors helped.
The Bad
- its a comedy

Dark Horses
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire - category fraud....
James Franco - Milk - may split the vote with his co - stars
Eddie Marsan - Happy Go Lucky - was Sally Hawkins all they noticed in this film?

Techs and script predictions coming soon!