Here are my semi final predictions. I will make my final predics after SAG award winners are announced!
Best Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
- Has won the hearts of critics and voters has won all the precursors
The Bad
- Everyones been talking about it people may be getting annoyed. No real acting recognition could hurt it. The acting branch is the largest.
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Good
- Just the kind of film oscar loves to reward star cast, great director and wonderful tech work.
The Bad
No wins from the precursors.
3. Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Great performances and a great director (Ron Howard)
The Bad
Hasn't gotten all that much recognition as a film as a whole
4. Milk
The Good
- Very political film with subject matter relating to today. Lots of great performances.
The Bad
- Gay subject matter may turn off some more conservative older members of the academy. Look at Broke Back Mountain.
5. The Dark Knight OR Wall - e
The Good
- Critically acclaimed films and seen by most if not all academy members. Heath Ledgers performance and Christopher Nolans direction and great tech from both films
The Bad
Ruthless campaigning from TDK may get annoying. Wall - e is an animated film.... Voters may feel rewarding it just for animated film will be enough recognition.
Dark Horses may surprise us come nomination morning.....
Best Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
- Has won the hearts of critics and voters has won all the precursors
The Bad
- Everyones been talking about it people may be getting annoyed. No real acting recognition could hurt it. The acting branch is the largest.
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Good
- Just the kind of film oscar loves to reward star cast, great director and wonderful tech work.
The Bad
No wins from the precursors.
3. Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Great performances and a great director (Ron Howard)
The Bad
Hasn't gotten all that much recognition as a film as a whole
4. Milk
The Good
- Very political film with subject matter relating to today. Lots of great performances.
The Bad
- Gay subject matter may turn off some more conservative older members of the academy. Look at Broke Back Mountain.
5. The Dark Knight OR Wall - e
The Good
- Critically acclaimed films and seen by most if not all academy members. Heath Ledgers performance and Christopher Nolans direction and great tech from both films
The Bad
Ruthless campaigning from TDK may get annoying. Wall - e is an animated film.... Voters may feel rewarding it just for animated film will be enough recognition.
Dark Horses may surprise us come nomination morning.....
The Wrestler - very performance driven
Revolutionary Road - I could still picture this getting in...
Doubt - Great ensemble and script but what about the film as a whole?
Gran Torino - mixed reviews... but it is Clint Eastwood!
Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- Directed by her acclaimed husband Sam Mendes, Long overdue and she has proven she has tremendous talent, Reuniting with Titanic co-stars and She has won lots of precursors
The Bad
- Vote split with the Reader, Other threats like Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway could upset.
2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
The Good
- All the precursors Kate hasn't won Anne has (with few exceptions) Critic support behind her I almost have a feeling she could upset.
The Bad
- Did all voters see it?
3. Meryl Streep
The Good
- She's Meryl Streep! And shes in a great roll! duh!
The Bad
- I've heard some people say she over did it a bit. (I agree in some scenes she did) Voters may want to spread the wealth to deserving and overdue actresses who haven't won yet. Also some people may prefer Sherri Jones (sp?) performance on broadway.
4. Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
The Good
- Shes won a slew of big critics awards and she has the globe. Plus Mike Leigh has a good track record for his actresses
The Bad
- Its a very cheery comedy voters may not take her seriously
5. Kristin Scott Thomas - Ive Loved You So Long
The Good
- critics loved it
The Bad
- Some precursors didn't although the globes did which helps. And its a french performance (which didn't stop Marion Cotilard last year but still there is a language barrier)
Dark Horses...
Angelina Jolie - Changeling - Still don't see her getting in...
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - only if button is a total sweep.
Best Actor
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
The Good
- Critics and precursors adored this performance
The Bad
- Some say his past reputation still holds weight.
2. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Voters love to reward overdue veterans
The Bad
- Where are the precursor awards to show for it?
3. Sean Penn - Milk
The Good
- Lots of critic awards and post prop 8 guilt from california? Hello!
The Bad
- He's already won once and very recently.
4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- working with a great director, precursor nom attentions and aging roles (even in reverse?) usually bode well for alot of actors.
The Bad
- some voters may account some of his performance relying on CGI affects which is kinda true...
5. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
The Good
- SAG noticed maybe oscar will too?
The Bad
- such an early release date, it is a very subtle performance - oscar doesn't usually do subtle.
Dark Horses
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road - Only if they go ape sh** for rev road. He has gotten nominated in the past. It's still possible...
Clint Eastwod - Gran Torino - Some say he's getting a late surge but mixed reviews are stopping him.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet - The Reader (just putting her 1 in both categories I feel like this is finally her year to win one!)
The Good
- As said about Pitt aging roles are great for actors/actresses. Precursor attention helps
The Bad
- Category Fraud! Some voters may just put her in lead
2. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Good
- Shes proven herself a good actress, lots of precursor attention, Woody's gals always fare well come oscar time.
The Bad
- The only big threat is Winslet.... We'll see she's #2 for now....
3. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (very vulnerable Marissa Tomei for The Wrestler might take her spot)
The Good
- The films been getting raves. If oscar loves button as much as she'll get in.
The Bad
- Not much precursor attention
4. Viola Davis - Doubt
The Good
- precursor attention
The Bad
- short role, will she stand out amongst the rest of the cast?
5. Amy Adams - Doubt
The Good
- If oscar loved doubt she'll be in precursor noms help. Nun roles do well generally at oscars.
The Bad
- such a week category anyone can steal anyones spot and hers is especially vulnerable
Dark Horses
Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler - Becoming more and more likely but did oscar voters only notice Rourke? Thats what I think happened although she got the globe nod.
Rachel Getting Married Ladies - Rosemarie Dewitt and Debra Winger - A veteran overdue actress and another making quite a name for herself and even got a couple precursor awards will they love Rachel?
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road - She does have industry favor but did voters love rev road?
Best Supporting Actor
1. Heath Ledger
The Good
- everything
The Bad
- super hero flick.... Agressive campaigning might get annoying
2. Josh Brolin - Milk
The Good
- Hes done great performances in the last 2 years that have been snubbed. Since he's not getting in for W. will voters finally reward him?
The Bad
- he's the villain but then again so is Ledger and so was Anthony Hopkins... Also lack of precursor attention.
3. Phillip SeymourHoffman - Doubt
The Good
- Voter love them some PSH! its just a great role for him he plays creepy but kind hearted really well.
The Bad
- nothing really although it is a weak race anyone is vulberable at this point.
4. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- a very baity role mentally handicapped
The Bad
- very small role and lack of attention from anywhere....
5. Robery Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
The Good
- Getting recognized from the big precursors helped.
The Bad
- its a comedy
Dark Horses
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire - category fraud....
James Franco - Milk - may split the vote with his co - stars
Eddie Marsan - Happy Go Lucky - was Sally Hawkins all they noticed in this film?
Techs and script predictions coming soon!
Revolutionary Road - I could still picture this getting in...
Doubt - Great ensemble and script but what about the film as a whole?
Gran Torino - mixed reviews... but it is Clint Eastwood!
Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- Directed by her acclaimed husband Sam Mendes, Long overdue and she has proven she has tremendous talent, Reuniting with Titanic co-stars and She has won lots of precursors
The Bad
- Vote split with the Reader, Other threats like Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway could upset.
2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
The Good
- All the precursors Kate hasn't won Anne has (with few exceptions) Critic support behind her I almost have a feeling she could upset.
The Bad
- Did all voters see it?
3. Meryl Streep
The Good
- She's Meryl Streep! And shes in a great roll! duh!
The Bad
- I've heard some people say she over did it a bit. (I agree in some scenes she did) Voters may want to spread the wealth to deserving and overdue actresses who haven't won yet. Also some people may prefer Sherri Jones (sp?) performance on broadway.
4. Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
The Good
- Shes won a slew of big critics awards and she has the globe. Plus Mike Leigh has a good track record for his actresses
The Bad
- Its a very cheery comedy voters may not take her seriously
5. Kristin Scott Thomas - Ive Loved You So Long
The Good
- critics loved it
The Bad
- Some precursors didn't although the globes did which helps. And its a french performance (which didn't stop Marion Cotilard last year but still there is a language barrier)
Dark Horses...
Angelina Jolie - Changeling - Still don't see her getting in...
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - only if button is a total sweep.
Best Actor
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
The Good
- Critics and precursors adored this performance
The Bad
- Some say his past reputation still holds weight.
2. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Voters love to reward overdue veterans
The Bad
- Where are the precursor awards to show for it?
3. Sean Penn - Milk
The Good
- Lots of critic awards and post prop 8 guilt from california? Hello!
The Bad
- He's already won once and very recently.
4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- working with a great director, precursor nom attentions and aging roles (even in reverse?) usually bode well for alot of actors.
The Bad
- some voters may account some of his performance relying on CGI affects which is kinda true...
5. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
The Good
- SAG noticed maybe oscar will too?
The Bad
- such an early release date, it is a very subtle performance - oscar doesn't usually do subtle.
Dark Horses
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road - Only if they go ape sh** for rev road. He has gotten nominated in the past. It's still possible...
Clint Eastwod - Gran Torino - Some say he's getting a late surge but mixed reviews are stopping him.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet - The Reader (just putting her 1 in both categories I feel like this is finally her year to win one!)
The Good
- As said about Pitt aging roles are great for actors/actresses. Precursor attention helps
The Bad
- Category Fraud! Some voters may just put her in lead
2. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Good
- Shes proven herself a good actress, lots of precursor attention, Woody's gals always fare well come oscar time.
The Bad
- The only big threat is Winslet.... We'll see she's #2 for now....
3. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (very vulnerable Marissa Tomei for The Wrestler might take her spot)
The Good
- The films been getting raves. If oscar loves button as much as she'll get in.
The Bad
- Not much precursor attention
4. Viola Davis - Doubt
The Good
- precursor attention
The Bad
- short role, will she stand out amongst the rest of the cast?
5. Amy Adams - Doubt
The Good
- If oscar loved doubt she'll be in precursor noms help. Nun roles do well generally at oscars.
The Bad
- such a week category anyone can steal anyones spot and hers is especially vulnerable
Dark Horses
Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler - Becoming more and more likely but did oscar voters only notice Rourke? Thats what I think happened although she got the globe nod.
Rachel Getting Married Ladies - Rosemarie Dewitt and Debra Winger - A veteran overdue actress and another making quite a name for herself and even got a couple precursor awards will they love Rachel?
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road - She does have industry favor but did voters love rev road?
Best Supporting Actor
1. Heath Ledger
The Good
- everything
The Bad
- super hero flick.... Agressive campaigning might get annoying
2. Josh Brolin - Milk
The Good
- Hes done great performances in the last 2 years that have been snubbed. Since he's not getting in for W. will voters finally reward him?
The Bad
- he's the villain but then again so is Ledger and so was Anthony Hopkins... Also lack of precursor attention.
3. Phillip SeymourHoffman - Doubt
The Good
- Voter love them some PSH! its just a great role for him he plays creepy but kind hearted really well.
The Bad
- nothing really although it is a weak race anyone is vulberable at this point.
4. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- a very baity role mentally handicapped
The Bad
- very small role and lack of attention from anywhere....
5. Robery Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
The Good
- Getting recognized from the big precursors helped.
The Bad
- its a comedy
Dark Horses
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire - category fraud....
James Franco - Milk - may split the vote with his co - stars
Eddie Marsan - Happy Go Lucky - was Sally Hawkins all they noticed in this film?
Techs and script predictions coming soon!
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