Oscar Predictions Round 1 Million......

Hmmm how many times have I tried to predict this years race? quite a few.... The race keeps changing and I need to keep updating m preictions sorry once again for lack of postings but anyway here we go lets look at acting categories (my favorites!) because Slumdog seems locked and loaded for some of the others.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
For Her
-The addict role oscar loves to nominate
- Good girl gone bad!
- She's proved herself a dependable actress
- Precursor support
- Sympathy vote... scorned by her ex who was put in jail! oh noes!
Against Her
- Bride Wars - remember when EddieMurphy was supposed to win BSA a couple years back? Then Norbit happened....
- Stiff competition - Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet can she get past them?

Kate Winslet - The Reader
For Her
- Holocaust film
- Court Room Scene
- Tears
- Aging
- Precursor support
- Overdue its her turn!
Against Her
- Voting confusion - how many peopleput her in supporting?
- Some may think Revolutionary Road performance was better

Meryl Streep - Doubt
For Her
- a legend, a perenial favorite
- the SAG and other precursor wins
- A nun role oscar likes them too!
- Mamma Mia oscar also likes to nominate people who've had a great year in the movies
- Tears
- Scene stealer she gets all the best dialogue!
- Hasn't won in a loooonnnggg time!
Against Her
- Shes won before - quite a few overdue actresses (Leo, Winslet and Hathaway) competing for their first trophy, oscar likes to spread the wealth.
- Some say she over did it....

Melissa Leo - Frozen River
For Her
- early support that stuck
- Sacrifices beauty for role.... (Think Charlize Theron in Monster among others)
- troubled mother (another oscar favorite)
- overdue veteran
- engaged in illegal activity - a morality play
- surprise screen play nom for the film shows support
Against Her
- small film
- Stiff Competition

Angelina Jolie - Changeling
For Her
- big celebrity easy press keeps her in voters minds
- troubled mother
- insane assylum (yet another oscar cliche')
- Clint Eastwood (his actors get noms usually)
- Brad, His and Hers nominations!
- Snub for A Mighty Heart last year
Against Her
- Not very much precursor support
- Too big a celebrity?
- She's already won... like I said oscar likes to spread the wealth (or not)

In short... Basically one big oscar cliche' (The addict, troubled mom, holocaust, bad girl etc...) but an interesting category none the less. Winslet not as big a lock as I thought,
Should Win - Anne Hathaway Rachel - Getting Married
Will Win - Kate Winslet - The Reader

Best Supporting Actress
Penolope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
For Her
- Woody Allen his actresses win and get nods usually
- Harvey Weinstein super campaigner!
- She's nuts!
- She's Bilingual!
- She's also bi sexual....
- She's proved herself good actress
- Critical darling - precursor adoration (besides Kates arguable category fraud...)
- Comedic and dramatic!
Against Her
- Not much except possible upsets... with Kate out of her way shes locked and loaded!

Amy Adams - Doubt
For Her
- Performance (she's great!)
- Nun roles are a favorite of oscar voters
- ensemble film - plays off other actors well (Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Streep and Davis)
- well loved after Junebug and Enchanted
- sympathetic character
- tears, a meltdown
Against Her
- May split votes with other cast members... especially Viola Davis

Viola Davis - Doubt
For Her
- troubled mom
- short but sweet a real scene stealer
- the whole movie pivots on her performance.... she does it well.
Against Her
- vote split with Adams
- too short of a performance?

Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
For Her
- the big film of the year
- old age makeup
- an enjoyable performance
Against Her
- Not much precursor support in the wins department....

Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler
For Her
- a woman in the sex trade with a heart of gold... another oscar cliche'
- Mickey Rourke - good chemistry
- a good performance, moving and natural
- Proved that My Cousin Vinny upset wasn't a mistake
Against Her
- competition...
- all attention was on Rourke for this one.
In Short - Good performances this year but this is Cruz's to lose
Should/ Will Win - Cruz!

Best Actor
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
For Him
- ages (backwards at that!)
- challenging role does it quite well
- celebrity
- Angelina matching nom red carpet glamour and excitement added to the show.
- accent!
Against Him
- not too many precursor wins
- stiff competition from Rourke and Penn
- some of his performance is in the technical part... kinda confusing to voters

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
For Him
- early support built up
- overdue veteran
- Step Brothers and Burn After Reading among other films makes him a favorite
- well respected
Against Him
- a quiet performance oscar likes to go for showier roles
- a small film

Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
For Him
- overdue veteran
- widespread category support for the film
- plays real person (bio pic)
- tony win for same role
- performance - believable and just plain awesome!
Against Him
- other competition...

Sean Penn - Milk
For Him
- plays real person (bio pic once again)
- political relevance
- plays against type and plays it well (good performance)
- precursor support
Against Him
- not much except Rourke.

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
For Him
- Lots of precursor support BAFTA win and Globe among others
- comeback story
- media support - lots of interviews and general buzz surrounding him
Against Him
- Sean Penn...

In Short - tough category! anyone could take it (except mybe Pitt)
Should Win - Mickey Rourke
Will Win - Mickey Rourke

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
For Him
- a classic performance - haunting, creepy and funny
- good way to reward such a widespread loved film
- He's dead (as much as I hate to say it)
- other good performances back him up
- a showy role he's crazy!
Against Him
Nothing!

Josh Brolin - Milk
For Him
- Good performance in a biopic
- a little mentally disturbed can't hurt!
- a good last 2 year - lots of momentum from other films
Against Him
- Heath Ledger

Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
For Him
- a brave performance playing another race
- funny
- a super come back year appeared in 5 or 6 films?
- a fan favorite
Against Him
- a comedic role
-other showier more dramatic roles and competition

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
For Him
- A perrenial oscar favorite
- lots of starring roles in last 2 years
- ensemble playing with Meryl Streep
Against Him
- a little icky and creepy.... child molester? ew...
- other competition

Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
For Him
- mentally unstable mathematician where have we seen this before?
- A great performance that stole scenes and stuck in voters minds
Against Him
- stiffer competition...

In Short
Should/Will Win - Heath Ledger

thanks for taking time to read comment!