Thursday, March 26, 2009

Primetime Emmy Predictions - Comedy

The emmy's are once again coming, shows are wrapping up and networks are gonna start sending in their tapes and campaigns. Here are my mediocre predictions... time will tell if I'm right!
The final nominee predictions are indicated with a - *
Comedy Series - Possible top 10
The Office *
30 Rock *
Weeds *
Flight of The Conchords
Two and a Half Men *
Entourage *
Samantha Who?
How I Met Your Mother *
Family Guy
The United States of Tara
- Going out on a limb here! Assuming the new popular vote will pull in HIMYM is probably wishful thinking or maybe this is Family Guy's year? Or any other popular comedy could come in. Perenial nominees The Office and Two and a Half Men, and last years winner 30 Rock are a shoo - in. Weeds should finally get in with the popular vote and Showtimes rigorous early campaigning - good selections for the submitted episodes.

Comedy Lead Actor - Top 10
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock *
Charlie Sheen - Two and a Half Men *
Steve Carell - The Office *
David Duchovny - Californiacation *
Lee Pace - Pushing Daisies
Adrien Grenier - Entourage
Tony Shalhoub - Monk *
Jason Lee - My Name is Earl
Jay Mohr - Gary Unmarried
Kyle Bornheimer - Worst Week
- Again going out on a limb predicting newcomers Jay Mohr and Kyle Bornheimer is a risky guess. Perenial nominees Tony Shalhoub, Steve Carell and Charlie Sheen and last years winner Alec Baldwin are shoo - ins. Up in the air is the last nominee... I'm predicting David Duchovny.

Comedy Lead Actress
Tina Fey - 30 Rock *
America Ferrera - Ugly Betty *
Mary - Louise Parker - Weeds *
Julia Louis - Dreyfus - The New Adventures of Old Christine *
Christina Applegate - Samantha Who? *
Toni Collette - The United States of Tara *
Felicity Huffman - Desperate Housewives
Sarah Silverman - The Sarah Silverman Program
Teri Hatcher - Desperate Housewives
Eva Longoria - Parker - Desperate Housewives
- Ok so Tina Fey, America Ferrera, Mary Louise Parker and Julia Louis Dreyfus are shoo - ins. I think Christina applegate is safe too. New comer Toni Collette has a bait - y role (multiple personalities) and Showtime is usually pretty good with getting nominations. But she could be interchanged with one of the Housewives.

Comedy Supporting Actor
Justin Kirk - Weeds
John Krassinski - The Office *
Jeremy Piven - Entourage *
Rainn Wilson - The Office *
Jon Cryer - Two and A Half Men *
Jack McBrayer - 30 Rock
Tracy Morgan - 30 Rock
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother *
Kevin Dillon - Entourage
John Corbett - United States of Tara
- Pretty obvious line up there's always room for surprises though....

Comedy Supporting Actress
Elisabeth Perkins - Weeds *
Kristin Chenoweth - Pushing Daisies *
Jenna Fischer - The Office *
Jean Smart - Samantha Who? *
Vanessa Williams - Ugly Betty *
Jane Krakowski - 30 Rock *
Holland Taylor - Two and a Half Men
Conchata Ferrel - Two and a Half Men
Jaime Pressly - My Name Is Earl
Dana Delany - Desperate Housewives
- Again an obvious line up Kristin Chenoweth or Jane Krakowski can be changed for one of the Two and a Half Men ladies

Guest star nominee predictions coming!

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Early 2009 Primetime Emmy Predictions!

It's that time of year again! Shows are wrapping up and now that Showtime has sent it's dvd screeners.
So here it goes hopefully I will do better than last year!

DRAMA

DRAMA SERIES
1. Mad Men
- Winning last year and just winning the globe Mad Men is popular and probably the frontrunner to win again
2. Damages
- Fresh off the win for Glenn Close it has some fresh blood this season (William Hurt among others!) Probably pretty secure for a nomination
3. Boston Legal
- mentioned before it's an emmy favorite and it's the last season so they will want to honor it one last time.
4. Dexter
- being nominated last year for the first time and also being one of the first non HBO cable network show to be nominated along with Damages and Mad Men helps alot. Also it got mentions from SAG and the Globes which it hasn't done before.
5. Lost
- having a good season... definatley a default.
6. House
- Maybe this year will be the year House gets nominated. The new rules favors more popular shows eliminating the final judging panel.
7. 24 (ALTERNATE)
- the new rules favor 24 once again. Returning after absence last year helps too.

LEAD DRAMA ACTOR
1. Hugh Laurie - House
- benefiting from the popular vote this year might be his year
2. Jon Hamm - Mad Men
- a very popular show and he was pretty much the front runner last year until the upset from Brian Cranston.
3. James Spader - Boston Legal
- the shows final year... he has been a past nominee and winner.
4. Michael C. Hall - Dexter
- a pretty popular performance, nominated last year.
5. Gabriel Byrne - In Treatment
- doesn't benefit from the new popular vote but benefits from the recent globe win.
6. Kiefer Sutherland - 24
- he's been nominated before and he's back from hiatus, beneifts from the popular vote.
7. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad (ALTERNATE)
- last years winner does not benefit from the new popular vote.

LEAD DRAMA ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close - Damages
- last years winner!
2. Anna Paquin - True Blood
- golden globe winner but it kinda is a fantasy. Does she benefit from the popular vote? Previous oscar winner definate presteige factor, the 2 academys like to reward the same actresses.
3. Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer
- previous nominee a definate default
4. Sally Field - Brothers and Sisters
- previous nominee and winner - benefits from the popular vote.
5. Holly Hunter - Saving Grace
- last year nominee, prestiege factor (oscar winner)
6. Mariska Hargitay - Law and Order SVU
- previous winner and nominee - benefits from the popular vote.
7. January Jones OR Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men (ALTERNATE)
- will one of them go supporting? popular show winning lots of awards.

SUPPORTING ACTOR DRAMA
1. Henry Ian Cusick, Michael Emmerson, Terry O' Quinn - Lost
- emmy likes the lost actors in this category, O' Quinn won before but was not in the top 10 last year Cusick was in the top 10 last year and Emmerson was a last year nominee. They benefit from the popular vote
2. William Shatner - Boston Legal
- the shows last year a past winner
3. John Slattery - Mad Men
- popular show, last year nominee

SUPPORTING ACTRESS DRAMA
1. Chandra Wilson - Grey's Anatomy
- will they finally give her what she rightly deserves? it's gone down hill but still....
2. Dianne Weist - In Treatment
- last years winner, prestiege factor (oscar winner)
3. Rachel Griffiths - Brothers and Sisters
- past nominee
4. Candace Bergen - Boston Legal
- the shows last year on the air. They may want to reward it somehow, a past emmy fave.
5. Sandra Oh - Grey's Anatomy
- perrenial nominee - one of the best things about the show
6. Katherine Heigl - Grey's Anatomy
- a much more dramatic story line (possible death! GASP!) after last years fiasco of her saying she didn't get as good material to warrant a nomination. Past winner helps.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

The Oscars: Review

All in all it was a good show. Hugh Jackman brought showmanship back to the ceremony a bold choice but he paid off. Even the 1st musical number was good (although the second with Beyonce, Zac Efron, Vanessa Hudgens, Dominic Cooper, and the other girl from Mama Mia was awful but its expected to have 1 bad musical number at the oscars) Even the jokes were pretty good and the night was organized in groups of categories post production, music etc.... and the night went faster then usual without the usual comedic monologues and random category presentation it was one after the other which was nice! Loved the acting presentation with 5 previous winners announcing and individual praising of their performances. So how did I do with my predictions?

16/24
So was hoping Slumdog wouldn't win as many as it did.... But no real surprises and I actually got one of the short categories right! Year in advance predictions coming soon!

Thanks for reading if you are....

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Its Here!

The oscars are here and here are some possible upsets tonight!

1. Viola Davis wins for supporting actress instead of Penelope Cruz
2. Anyone else wins for directing usually they like to get quirky with their choices here but not likely.
3. Mickey Rourke wins (which I predict)
4. Meryl or Anne win for Best Actress

Anything can happen don't count anyone out for a win! Good luck with your predictions and happy watching!

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Odds Are.... Who Will win @ Sundays Oscars?

Probable Order are my predictions... Enjoy!
Best Picture
The Probable Order....
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
3. The Reader
4. Milk
5. Frost/Nixon

My Order....
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2. The Reader
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Milk
5. Frost/Nixon

Best Director
The Probable Order...
1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
2. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Gus Van Sant - Milk
4. Stephen Daldry - The Reader
5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

My Order....
1. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Gus Van Sant - Milk
3. Stephen Daldry - The Reader
4. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Best Actor
The Probable Order....
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
2. Sean Penn - Milk
3. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
5. Brad Bitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

My Order...
Pretty Much The Same except maybe Jenkins would be 3 and Langella would be 4

Best Actress
The Probable Order...1. Kate Winslet - The Reader
2. Meryl Streep - Doubt
3. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
4. Melissa Leo - Frozen River
5. Angelina Jolie - Changeling

My Order...
Same except switch Streep with Hathaway

Best Supporting Actor
The Probable Order...
1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
2. Josh Brolin - Milk
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
4. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
5. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

My Order...
1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
2. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
3. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
4. Josh Brolin - Milk
5. Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt

Best Supporting Actress
The Probable Order...
1. Penolope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis - Doubt
3. Amy Adams - Doubt
4. Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

My List...
Probably the same.

Best Original Screenplay
The Probable Order...
1. Andrew Stanton - Wall - E
2. Dustin Lance Black - Milk
3. Mike Leigh - Happy Go Lucky
4. Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
5. Martin McDonagh - In Bruges

My List...
Probably The Same once again.... Maybe In Bruges would be higher.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Probable Order...
1. Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
2. John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
3. David Hare - The Reader
4. Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon

My List
1. Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. David Hare - The Reader
3. John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
4. Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
5. Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design
The Probable Order...
1. Michael O'Connor - The Duchess
2. Catherine Martin - Australia
3. Jacqueline West - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Albert Wolsky - Revolutionary Road
5. Danny Glicker - Milk

My List...
Probably the same no idea

Best Cinematography
The Probable Order...
1. Claudio Miranda - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Wally Pfister - The Dark Knight
3. Anthony Dod Mantle - Slumdog Millionaire
4. Chris Menges - The Reader
5. Tom Stern - Changeling

My List...
I'm not good @ judging tech categories so I guess the same maybe Slumdog might be a little higher...

Best Art Direction
The Probable Order...
1. Donald Graham Burt, Victor Solfo - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway - The Duchess
3. James Murakami, Gary Fettis - Changeling
4. Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando - The Dark Knight
5. Kristi Zea, Debra Shutt - Revolutionary Road

Best Film Editing
Probable Order...
1. Chris Dickens - Slumdog Millionaire
2. Lee Smith - The Dark Knight
3. Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Elliot Graham, Gus Van Sant - Milk
5. Mike and Daniel P. Hill - Frost/Nixon

Visual Effects
Probable Order...
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Iron Man
3. The Dark Knight

Best Makeup
Probable Order...
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Hellboy 2
3. The Dark Knight

Best Original Score
Probable Order...
1. A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire
2. Alexandre Desplat - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Thomas Newman - Wall - E
4. Danny Elfman - Milk
5. James Newton Howard - Defiance

Best Original Song Written for A Motion Picture
Probable Order...
1. Jai Ho - Slumdog Millionaire
2. Down To Earth - Wall - E
3. O Saya - Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Mixing
Probable Order...
1. The Dark Knight
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Wall - E
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Wanted

Sound Editing
Probable Order..
1. Wall - E
2. The Dark Knight
3. Wall - E
4 . Slumdog Millionaire
5. Wanted

Foreign Language Film
Probable Order...
1. Waltz with Bashir
2. The Class
3. Departures
4. The Baadar Meinhoff Complex
5. Revanche

Documentary Feature
Probable Order...
1. Man on Wire
2. Trouble The Water
3. The Betrayal
4. The Garden
5. Encounters at the end of the World

Animated Short
Probable Order...
1. La Maison en Petits...
2. Presto
3. Lavatory Lovestory
4. This Way Up
5. Oktapodi

Live Action Short
Probable Order...
1. The Pig
2. Toyland
3. Aufder Strecke
4. Manon on The Ashphalt
5. New Boy

Documentary Short
Probable Order...
1. The Conscience of Nhem En
2. The Final Inch
3. En
4. Smile Pinki
5. Balcony of Room 306

So There They are i'll tally up after good luck on your predictions too!

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Oscar Predictions Round 1 Million......

Hmmm how many times have I tried to predict this years race? quite a few.... The race keeps changing and I need to keep updating m preictions sorry once again for lack of postings but anyway here we go lets look at acting categories (my favorites!) because Slumdog seems locked and loaded for some of the others.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
For Her
-The addict role oscar loves to nominate
- Good girl gone bad!
- She's proved herself a dependable actress
- Precursor support
- Sympathy vote... scorned by her ex who was put in jail! oh noes!
Against Her
- Bride Wars - remember when EddieMurphy was supposed to win BSA a couple years back? Then Norbit happened....
- Stiff competition - Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet can she get past them?

Kate Winslet - The Reader
For Her
- Holocaust film
- Court Room Scene
- Tears
- Aging
- Precursor support
- Overdue its her turn!
Against Her
- Voting confusion - how many peopleput her in supporting?
- Some may think Revolutionary Road performance was better

Meryl Streep - Doubt
For Her
- a legend, a perenial favorite
- the SAG and other precursor wins
- A nun role oscar likes them too!
- Mamma Mia oscar also likes to nominate people who've had a great year in the movies
- Tears
- Scene stealer she gets all the best dialogue!
- Hasn't won in a loooonnnggg time!
Against Her
- Shes won before - quite a few overdue actresses (Leo, Winslet and Hathaway) competing for their first trophy, oscar likes to spread the wealth.
- Some say she over did it....

Melissa Leo - Frozen River
For Her
- early support that stuck
- Sacrifices beauty for role.... (Think Charlize Theron in Monster among others)
- troubled mother (another oscar favorite)
- overdue veteran
- engaged in illegal activity - a morality play
- surprise screen play nom for the film shows support
Against Her
- small film
- Stiff Competition

Angelina Jolie - Changeling
For Her
- big celebrity easy press keeps her in voters minds
- troubled mother
- insane assylum (yet another oscar cliche')
- Clint Eastwood (his actors get noms usually)
- Brad, His and Hers nominations!
- Snub for A Mighty Heart last year
Against Her
- Not very much precursor support
- Too big a celebrity?
- She's already won... like I said oscar likes to spread the wealth (or not)

In short... Basically one big oscar cliche' (The addict, troubled mom, holocaust, bad girl etc...) but an interesting category none the less. Winslet not as big a lock as I thought,
Should Win - Anne Hathaway Rachel - Getting Married
Will Win - Kate Winslet - The Reader

Best Supporting Actress
Penolope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
For Her
- Woody Allen his actresses win and get nods usually
- Harvey Weinstein super campaigner!
- She's nuts!
- She's Bilingual!
- She's also bi sexual....
- She's proved herself good actress
- Critical darling - precursor adoration (besides Kates arguable category fraud...)
- Comedic and dramatic!
Against Her
- Not much except possible upsets... with Kate out of her way shes locked and loaded!

Amy Adams - Doubt
For Her
- Performance (she's great!)
- Nun roles are a favorite of oscar voters
- ensemble film - plays off other actors well (Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Streep and Davis)
- well loved after Junebug and Enchanted
- sympathetic character
- tears, a meltdown
Against Her
- May split votes with other cast members... especially Viola Davis

Viola Davis - Doubt
For Her
- troubled mom
- short but sweet a real scene stealer
- the whole movie pivots on her performance.... she does it well.
Against Her
- vote split with Adams
- too short of a performance?

Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
For Her
- the big film of the year
- old age makeup
- an enjoyable performance
Against Her
- Not much precursor support in the wins department....

Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler
For Her
- a woman in the sex trade with a heart of gold... another oscar cliche'
- Mickey Rourke - good chemistry
- a good performance, moving and natural
- Proved that My Cousin Vinny upset wasn't a mistake
Against Her
- competition...
- all attention was on Rourke for this one.
In Short - Good performances this year but this is Cruz's to lose
Should/ Will Win - Cruz!

Best Actor
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
For Him
- ages (backwards at that!)
- challenging role does it quite well
- celebrity
- Angelina matching nom red carpet glamour and excitement added to the show.
- accent!
Against Him
- not too many precursor wins
- stiff competition from Rourke and Penn
- some of his performance is in the technical part... kinda confusing to voters

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
For Him
- early support built up
- overdue veteran
- Step Brothers and Burn After Reading among other films makes him a favorite
- well respected
Against Him
- a quiet performance oscar likes to go for showier roles
- a small film

Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
For Him
- overdue veteran
- widespread category support for the film
- plays real person (bio pic)
- tony win for same role
- performance - believable and just plain awesome!
Against Him
- other competition...

Sean Penn - Milk
For Him
- plays real person (bio pic once again)
- political relevance
- plays against type and plays it well (good performance)
- precursor support
Against Him
- not much except Rourke.

Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
For Him
- Lots of precursor support BAFTA win and Globe among others
- comeback story
- media support - lots of interviews and general buzz surrounding him
Against Him
- Sean Penn...

In Short - tough category! anyone could take it (except mybe Pitt)
Should Win - Mickey Rourke
Will Win - Mickey Rourke

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
For Him
- a classic performance - haunting, creepy and funny
- good way to reward such a widespread loved film
- He's dead (as much as I hate to say it)
- other good performances back him up
- a showy role he's crazy!
Against Him
Nothing!

Josh Brolin - Milk
For Him
- Good performance in a biopic
- a little mentally disturbed can't hurt!
- a good last 2 year - lots of momentum from other films
Against Him
- Heath Ledger

Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
For Him
- a brave performance playing another race
- funny
- a super come back year appeared in 5 or 6 films?
- a fan favorite
Against Him
- a comedic role
-other showier more dramatic roles and competition

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
For Him
- A perrenial oscar favorite
- lots of starring roles in last 2 years
- ensemble playing with Meryl Streep
Against Him
- a little icky and creepy.... child molester? ew...
- other competition

Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
For Him
- mentally unstable mathematician where have we seen this before?
- A great performance that stole scenes and stuck in voters minds
Against Him
- stiffer competition...

In Short
Should/Will Win - Heath Ledger

thanks for taking time to read comment!

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Oscar Nominations How Did I Do on Guessing?

Terrible thats how.
Kate Winslets lead in Reader
Snub for The Dark Knight for picture and director
Angelina Jolie and Melissa leo in Best Actress instead of Sally Hawkins and Kristin Scott Thomas...

Lets see.
Best Picture

BEST PICTURE
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Frost/Nixon
-The Reader
-Slumdog Millionaire
-Milk

4/5
The Dark Knight/Wall - E for The Reader

BEST ACTOR
-Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
-Sean Penn, Milk
-Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
-Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

5/5
Woot! No surprises for me! Really glad to see Jenkins and Pitt here

BEST ACTRESS
-Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
-Angelina Jolie, Changeling
-Meryl Streep, Doubt
-Kate Winslet, The Reader
-Melissa Leo, Frozen River

2.5(wrong role for winslet)/5
Hawkins and Scott - Thomas for Leo and Jolie also predicted Winslet being nominated here for the Reader instead of Revolutionary Road.

BEST ACTOR - SUPPORTING
-Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
-Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
-Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
-Josh Brolin, Milk
-Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

5/5
Correctly predicted Michael Shannon while everyone else thought he was merely a dark horse.
A pleasant surprise.

BEST ACTRESS - SUPPORTING
-Amy Adams, Doubt
-Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
-Viola Davis, Doubt
-Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
-Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

4/5
Predicted Kate Winslet for Reader instead ofMarissa Tomei The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
-Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
-Stephen Daldry, The Reader
-David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
-Gus Van Sant, Milk

4/5
Predicted Christopher Nolan The Dark Knight for Stephen Daldry The Reader

Will look over the the rest of the nominees tomorrow I think The widespread support for The Reader is good for Kate Winslet and 13 total noms for Benjamin Button is good for it too... we will see!

Monday, January 19, 2009

Oscar Predictions Semi - Final Other Categories

Best Director
1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
He's a helmer of the most critically acclaimed and the oscar front runner for best pic. Most often the two go hand in hand
The Bad
Going up against other more heavy weight and overdue directors hurts and also there seems to be a bit of Slumdog backlash just like there was Juno and No Country for old men backlash last year.

2. Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
The Good
- He directed a very visually appealing film and created some great and very ambitous shots. Will the Dark Knight prevail?
The Bad
- Its a superhero movie.... Action flicks and blockbusters don't usually get into this mix although they are sometimes most deserving.

3. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- A very ambitous technical film. Will he finally get a shot at oscar after so many snubs? Button is pretty hard to ignore at this point.
The Bad
- Other tougher competition, he's been snubbed before will he again this time?

4. Gus Van Sant - Milk
The Good
- He's created some great films, and some say robbed for good will hunting. If milk gets the nod for best pic he's pretty much in
The Bad
- Some say his direction is odd and some conservative members may not like Milk.... (the film i mean :P)

5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- almost secure for a best pic nod will her mirror with a direction nod too?
The Bad
- Its really a performance showcase for Frank Langella and Michael Sheen will they notice the direction?

Other Possibilities...
Woody Allen - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler
Stephen Daldry - The Reader (this will have to be nommed for best pic for this to happen)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Andrew Stanton - Wall - e
Is it time for an animated film to win best original screenplay?

2. Woody Allen - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Wonderfully witty and funny some say his best in years. Will they reward him accordingly?

3. Jenny Lumet - Rachel Getting Married
Definatley one of the most buzzworthy... Alot of people were talking about her script.

4. Dustin Lance Black - Milk
A very week but crowded race Milk might have to sweep.

5. Thomas Macarthy - The Visitor
He will get in especially if Richard Jenkins does.

Other Possibilites...
Synedoche, New York
Burn After Reading
Happy Go Lucky
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire
Slumdogs on fire and he's won tons of precursors.... but will someone upet?

2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
A huge threat especially if they love Button.

3. David Hare - The Reader
The Reader is a puzzle.... For sure Kates getting in but other categories... Im not sure yet...

4. John Patric Shanley - Doubt
Adapted from his own play - he is a sure fire contender

5. TIE Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon, Justin Hythe - Revolutionary Road
Which is getting in? Will both get in and bumb Hare or Shanley? hm.....

Art Direction
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
An artistically and technically ambitous film sure to get at least one or two tech awards.

2. Revolutionary Road
Great shots by champ Roger Deakins (hes a perenial fave in this category)

3. The Dark Knight
If not picture or director at least some tech awards AT LEAST!

4. Changeling AND/OR The Duchess
They usually throw in a period piece...

5. Slumdog Millionaire
Gotta love Slumdog! The slum scenes are especially surprisingly colorful and beautiful!

Cinematography
1. Slumdog Millionaire
for the same reasons as above

2. The Dark Knight

3. Australia
Another technically beautiful film sure to get some tech category nods

4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button/

5. Revolutionary Road

Costume Design
1. The Duchess
Again with the period pieces this year

2. Revolutionary Road
Great 50's outfits

3. Changeling
Another period piece

4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
And another....

5. Australia
And another!

Film Editing
1. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

2. Slumdog Millionaire

3. The Dark Knight

4. Frost/Nixon

5. Milk

Makeup
1. The Reader
Aging always a fave for makeup category last years champ La Vie En Rose.....

2. Helboy II The Golden Army
Awesome hellboy makeup of course among many other character standouts.

3.The Curious Case Case of Benjamin Button
Again aging but alot with cgi effects too...

Also Possible
The Dark Knight or Tropic Thunder for obvious Reasons (Robert Downey Jr. And the Joker!)

Original Score
1. Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahman
He did win the globe!

2. James Newton Howard and Hanz Zimmer - The Dark Knight
Tailing close behind...

3. Danny Elfman - Milk

4. Thomas Newman - Wall - e

5. Alexandre Desplat - Benjamin Button

Original Song
1. The Wrestler From The Wrestler
Bruce Springsteen! Hello!

2. Down To Earth From Wall - e

3. I Thought I Lost You From Bolt

4. Gran Torino From Gran Torino
Clints singing is funny but good writing...

5. Jaiho - Slumdog Millionaire
Interesting ethnic song!

Sound Mixing Just taking guesses here don't know much about the next 2 categories..
1. Wall - E
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Editing
1. The Dark Knight
2. Wall - e
3. Iron Man
4. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5. Quantum of Solace

Visual Effects
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Iron Man
3. The Dark Knight
Also Possibly...
The Mummy, Hellboy OR Journey to the center of the earth.. I can't decide

Foreign Language Film
1. Waltz With Bashir
2. The Class
3. Revanche
4. The Baadar Meinhoff Complex
5. Everlasting Moments

Documentary Film
1. Man On Wire
2. IOUSA
3. Standard Operating Procedure
4. Trouble The Water
5. Made In America

Animated Feature
1. Wall - E
2. Kung Fu Panda
3. Bolt

Documentary Short
1. Room 306
2. Downstream
3. Viva La Causa
4. Smile Pink!
5. David McCollugh: Painting With Words

Animated Short
NO FREAKING CLUE? The one at the beginning of Wall - e? You know the pixar one? will post as I find out more same with Live action short... No idea...

Thanks for reading hope you enjoy my predics!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Oscar Predictions - Semi Final

Here are my semi final predictions. I will make my final predics after SAG award winners are announced!

Best Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire
The Good
- Has won the hearts of critics and voters has won all the precursors
The Bad
- Everyones been talking about it people may be getting annoyed. No real acting recognition could hurt it. The acting branch is the largest.
2. The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Good
- Just the kind of film oscar loves to reward star cast, great director and wonderful tech work.
The Bad
No wins from the precursors.
3. Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Great performances and a great director (Ron Howard)
The Bad
Hasn't gotten all that much recognition as a film as a whole
4. Milk
The Good
- Very political film with subject matter relating to today. Lots of great performances.
The Bad
- Gay subject matter may turn off some more conservative older members of the academy. Look at Broke Back Mountain.
5. The Dark Knight OR Wall - e
The Good
- Critically acclaimed films and seen by most if not all academy members. Heath Ledgers performance and Christopher Nolans direction and great tech from both films
The Bad
Ruthless campaigning from TDK may get annoying. Wall - e is an animated film.... Voters may feel rewarding it just for animated film will be enough recognition.

Dark Horses may surprise us come nomination morning.....

The Wrestler - very performance driven
Revolutionary Road - I could still picture this getting in...
Doubt - Great ensemble and script but what about the film as a whole?
Gran Torino - mixed reviews... but it is Clint Eastwood!

Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- Directed by her acclaimed husband Sam Mendes, Long overdue and she has proven she has tremendous talent, Reuniting with Titanic co-stars and She has won lots of precursors
The Bad
- Vote split with the Reader, Other threats like Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway could upset.

2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
The Good
- All the precursors Kate hasn't won Anne has (with few exceptions) Critic support behind her I almost have a feeling she could upset.
The Bad
- Did all voters see it?

3. Meryl Streep
The Good
- She's Meryl Streep! And shes in a great roll! duh!
The Bad
- I've heard some people say she over did it a bit. (I agree in some scenes she did) Voters may want to spread the wealth to deserving and overdue actresses who haven't won yet. Also some people may prefer Sherri Jones (sp?) performance on broadway.

4. Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
The Good
- Shes won a slew of big critics awards and she has the globe. Plus Mike Leigh has a good track record for his actresses
The Bad
- Its a very cheery comedy voters may not take her seriously

5. Kristin Scott Thomas - Ive Loved You So Long
The Good
- critics loved it
The Bad
- Some precursors didn't although the globes did which helps. And its a french performance (which didn't stop Marion Cotilard last year but still there is a language barrier)

Dark Horses...
Angelina Jolie - Changeling - Still don't see her getting in...
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - only if button is a total sweep.

Best Actor
1. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
The Good
- Critics and precursors adored this performance
The Bad
- Some say his past reputation still holds weight.

2. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
The Good
- Voters love to reward overdue veterans
The Bad
- Where are the precursor awards to show for it?

3. Sean Penn - Milk
The Good
- Lots of critic awards and post prop 8 guilt from california? Hello!
The Bad
- He's already won once and very recently.

4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Good
- working with a great director, precursor nom attentions and aging roles (even in reverse?) usually bode well for alot of actors.
The Bad
- some voters may account some of his performance relying on CGI affects which is kinda true...

5. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
The Good
- SAG noticed maybe oscar will too?
The Bad
- such an early release date, it is a very subtle performance - oscar doesn't usually do subtle.

Dark Horses
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road - Only if they go ape sh** for rev road. He has gotten nominated in the past. It's still possible...
Clint Eastwod - Gran Torino - Some say he's getting a late surge but mixed reviews are stopping him.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Kate Winslet - The Reader (just putting her 1 in both categories I feel like this is finally her year to win one!)
The Good
- As said about Pitt aging roles are great for actors/actresses. Precursor attention helps
The Bad
- Category Fraud! Some voters may just put her in lead

2. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Good
- Shes proven herself a good actress, lots of precursor attention, Woody's gals always fare well come oscar time.
The Bad
- The only big threat is Winslet.... We'll see she's #2 for now....

3. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (very vulnerable Marissa Tomei for The Wrestler might take her spot)
The Good
- The films been getting raves. If oscar loves button as much as she'll get in.
The Bad
- Not much precursor attention

4. Viola Davis - Doubt
The Good
- precursor attention
The Bad
- short role, will she stand out amongst the rest of the cast?

5. Amy Adams - Doubt
The Good
- If oscar loved doubt she'll be in precursor noms help. Nun roles do well generally at oscars.
The Bad
- such a week category anyone can steal anyones spot and hers is especially vulnerable

Dark Horses
Marissa Tomei - The Wrestler - Becoming more and more likely but did oscar voters only notice Rourke? Thats what I think happened although she got the globe nod.
Rachel Getting Married Ladies - Rosemarie Dewitt and Debra Winger - A veteran overdue actress and another making quite a name for herself and even got a couple precursor awards will they love Rachel?
Kathy Bates - Revolutionary Road - She does have industry favor but did voters love rev road?

Best Supporting Actor
1. Heath Ledger
The Good
- everything
The Bad
- super hero flick.... Agressive campaigning might get annoying

2. Josh Brolin - Milk
The Good
- Hes done great performances in the last 2 years that have been snubbed. Since he's not getting in for W. will voters finally reward him?
The Bad
- he's the villain but then again so is Ledger and so was Anthony Hopkins... Also lack of precursor attention.

3. Phillip SeymourHoffman - Doubt
The Good
- Voter love them some PSH! its just a great role for him he plays creepy but kind hearted really well.
The Bad
- nothing really although it is a weak race anyone is vulberable at this point.

4. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
The Good
- a very baity role mentally handicapped
The Bad
- very small role and lack of attention from anywhere....

5. Robery Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
The Good
- Getting recognized from the big precursors helped.
The Bad
- its a comedy

Dark Horses
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire - category fraud....
James Franco - Milk - may split the vote with his co - stars
Eddie Marsan - Happy Go Lucky - was Sally Hawkins all they noticed in this film?

Techs and script predictions coming soon!